I think people around here have a vastly overestimated opinion of how important the fediverse is to other social media sites.
Within the first 7 hours of Threads, they had 10 million users.
Meta absolutely DGAF about us. They don’t have to. Using ActivityPub is at worst an anti-monopoly play. But by the time they turn on federation, all of the people who were going to leave the fediverse for Threads will likely already have done so.
Their third and optional goal is to starve twitter-like fediverse apps from users. […] Thus robbing mastodon, calckey, pleroma, etc from potential users and attention.
They can (will) do that without federating. Federating (or not) is not going to make any appreciable difference.
They can do that without federating. In the first 7 hours of Threads being open, they got 10 million users. There’s nothing additional they can do to “extinguish” the fediverse simply by being inside it.
Any fediverse users who prefer Threads are going to go there anyway - remember, you have to create a new account on each server already! And anyone who detests Meta is going to stay in the fediverse regardless. They’re here now, when the fediverse is minuscule. Nothing Meta can do is going to make the fediverse smaller.
Most people in this thread have a vastly overestimated opinion of how large the fediverse is, how relevant it is to social media overall, and how much any other social media company actually cares about what’s going on here. If every server defederates from Meta, Meta will just shrug and go on with its day, and continue siphoning users off anyway. Probably even faster than before, because there will be no way for fediverse users to see the Threads stuff they want to see. They’ll have to explicitly re-home over there. And what are the chances they’ll stick around on the fediverse after that?
I think you are wildly overestimating the stickiness of the fediverse. The sorts of people who will prefer Threads are going to prefer Threads whether or not it’s federated. On the other hand, the sorts of people who prefer the fediverse will never switch to Threads even if it becomes the smoothest experience ever. But the latter cohort is likely much, much smaller than the former.
If Kbin defederates from Threads, I’ll just leave Kbin, and stay with Threads. Defederating over vibes is not how the fediverse is supposed to operate. And for everyone advocating for this dumb idea, I’m just using this thread as a honey pot.